From control to price discovery: Japan’s JGB curve enters a new phase

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For decades, Japan’s government bond market was seen as the definition of stability. With yields pinned by deflationary inertia and the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ’s) control, the curve rarely deviated.

But signs in early 2026 show that the long end of the curve – particularly the 10-year and 30-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) – is beginning to move, with auction outcomes acting as indicators before the secondary market fully prices the shift. Continue reading here.

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