Access our report on global inflation trends for 2026, looking at how AI-driven productivity, government debt, and US tariffs are influencing the disinflation path this year.

Key points
  • Global inflation has eased from around 5% in late 2024 to a likely 3% by end-2025. In the US, AI adoption and productivity gains are helping anchor inflation expectations by enabling higher output without proportional cost increases, acting as a disinflationary force.
  • High debt levels can create structural headwinds for inflation if governments maintain expansive fiscal policies, at least until rising bond yields force them to tighten. Central banks cutting rates to compensate for weak growth can exacerbate the problem, keeping the risk of ongoing inflation elevated.
  • All that said, US tariffs complicate the disinflation trajectory by raising import costs and squeezing corporate margins, particularly in the US. While the broader global effect may moderate inflation over time, tariffs create sectoral pressures that could limit the pace of price declines in the short term.

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