Spectre of stagflation

Steven Major CFA, Global Macro Advisor at Tradition explores how rising oil prices are reshaping inflation expectations, bond market pricing, and the renewed relevance of stagflation. Access the full stagflation article.

The “spectre of stagflation” is no longer just a ghost story from the 1970s; it is rapidly becoming the primary concern for global bond markets. Only a few weeks ago, the consensus was leaning toward a “rosy” base case for both equities and bonds, fuelled by expectations of an AI-driven disinflationary trend and a potential supply glut that could have pushed Brent crude as low as $60.

Today, that narrative has flipped. With oil prices recently surging above USD100, the market is grappling with a reality where inflation stays sticky and growth starts to falter….