Tracking BOT policy shifts with THB OIS and IRS coverage

At the start of 2025 Tradition’s THOR (Thai Overnight Repurchase Rate) 1Y OIS and Non-Deliverable 1Y OIS were priced at 2.015, but the year has proven highly volatile for the Thai Baht swaps market. Since January, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has cut interest rates three times—lowering the benchmark by over 50 basis points to 1.50% in August.

These policy moves drove THB IRS and OIS single-sided gross notional volumes to $418 billion in Q2, marking a 48% increase over the previous year. The BOT’s monetary easing came amid low inflation, a strong baht, and a sharp 82% year-on-year surge in Thailand’s gold exports to $7.6 billion. Political instability added to the volatility, with Anutin Charnvirakul becoming the country’s third prime minister in just over a year.

“It is common for an emerging market offshore OIS rate to be trading higher than the onshore ones, normally indicating among other things capital flow pressures, policy credibility and foreign investor sentiment. However, our desks are consistently seeing onshore prices trading at .25 to 1 basis point higher than the offshore counterpart. This reflects the sentiment of foreign banks interest in the Kingdoms’ bonds and swaps market.” Saracen Fletcher, APAC Product Development & Strategy.

If your team is modeling onshore or offshore rates interest, or calibrating trading signals in policy shifts, where better to get the data from than the broker who facilitated the first THOR swap.
At TraditionData, we take pride in being at the forefront of the OTC derivatives markets delivering value to clients through product innovation, data solutions and best-in-class execution.