The European Energy Complex: Navigating Supply Challenges and Winter Preparedness Post Ukraine Invasion

The European energy complex looks tighter than it was before Russia`s invasion of Ukraine.

However, whilst household Energy and petrol bills remain high, the region as a whole is much better prepared to cope with the higher winter energy and fuel demand than a year ago.

Record-high temperatures this month have also reduced fears of a possible early-winter energy squeeze, but historical weather data suggest that a mild start to winter does not always indicate a mild winter ahead. Moreover, supply risk still persists from security threats due to rising tensions in the Middle East.

Looking closer at oil products, in particular at Diesel and Gasoil, supply remains scarce and Europe can only hope in another mild winter to avoid a price crunch. Historically, Russia was Europe’s main source of Diesel imports before sanctions were put in place in December 2022. Since then the continent has relied more heavily on supplies from the Middle East and US, but this in itself has caused problems as the gap couldn`t be fully filled and the supply chain has become longer and more prone to disruptions.

The charts below, created using data drawn from Tradition’s award winning desks, show how the N.W.E Diesel and Gasoil Forward curves have moved in the last 3 years.

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