Volatility, the Overton window, and the illusion of stability

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Volatility spikes. Then it fades. That has become the defining rhythm of modern markets.

A shock appears, markets wobble, volatility jumps – and then, often within days, everything settles back down. Investors have learned the playbook: fade the move, sell the spike, buy the dip. It has worked often enough to become reflexive.

But this familiar pattern masks something more interesting – and potentially more dangerous….