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Analysts predict that COP28 delegates will likely refrain again from committing to phase out fossil fuels, opting for a more achievable “phase down” like last year. Parties might settle for a pledge to increase renewable capacity at a faster pace. Fossil fuel usage maintains centre stage in the world economy: consumer demand for Oil remains strong and it is set to grow further as viable greener alternatives remain scarce.
It is worth noting that long term demand growth scenarios and geopolitical turmoil doesn`t always translate in short term bullish markets. Crude prices have, in fact, being falling over the past month. Despite a rebound this Monday, WTI (West Texas Intermediate – one of the main global oil benchmarks) closed last Friday at just a few cents over 76 $/Barrel, recording a record fourth straight week loss – a drop of more than 20% since September`s high, as our data shows in the chart below. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that depleted US crude inventories at Cushing hub are quickly rebuilding, having risen steadily for 4 weeks as prices have been falling.
Russia, an Opec + member, has been increasing seaborne exports in recent months and also lifted a temporary ban on gasoline exports from Nov the 17th as the domestic market is saturated. While US Crude production and Russia Exports look healthy, uncertainty remains on what other OPEC + members will do next: Saudi Arabia is looking into extending oil production cuts well into next year and others are considering further reductions to counterbalance falling prices and rising tensions in the Middle East.
In times of persistent market volatility, equipping your business with the data and tools to navigate complex oil markets is of paramount importance. With data drawn directly from Tradition’s award-winning brokerage desks across the globe, you can be sure that our oil market data offers an independent and reliable pricing source.
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