Measuring rate cut probabilities ahead of the next FOMC meeting

US Treasury yields continue to oscillate as markets assess the path of Federal policy. On March 2, 2026, 10 year Treasuries briefly touched an 11 month low of 3.926% amid rising geopolitical tensions, before reversing to 4.10% by midday on March 3. At the front end, Fed funds futures slipped four ticks through December, signalling a moderation in expectations for aggressive easing.

With a June rate cut now priced at roughly even odds, the question for investors is no longer if the Fed will ease, but how that probability is being expressed across different instruments and maturities.

Implied policy probabilities are derived directly from futures pricing. Fed funds and SOFR futures provide a real time translation of market sentiment into expected effective rates for each month.

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