September 2025 will be remembered as a pivotal moment in this rate cycle. The Fed delivered its first cut since December 2024, but the real question wasn’t if, it was when and how much.
While analysts debated 25 versus 50 basis points, the overnight repo market was already telegraphing the answer.
In the weeks leading up to September’s FOMC meeting, overnight repo dynamics shifted. Fed reverse repo usage, Treasury yields, SOFR spreads, and collateral availability all pointed to the eventual decision.

The competitive edge

In fixed income markets, being right 12-18 hours early can mean the difference between leading and following. It’s the difference between executing at your price and chasing the market.

At TraditionData, our Predictive Overnight Repo (TPOR) service accurately called the September rate cut within 0.5 basis points.
We help clients turn overnight funding data into actionable intelligence.