What the last FOMC meeting of the year tells us about Repo signals

The final FOMC meeting of the year, held on December 10th, carried added significance. Short-term funding markets once again provided some of the clearest clues about how policy expectations were evolving in the days before the announcement.

Across this easing cycle, we’ve previously highlighted how September and October repo behavior telegraphed the Fed’s moves before they were formalized:

September: TPOR captured a smooth, directional decline in overnight levels ahead of the first cut.
October: TPOR identified pre-meeting liquidity tightness that contributed to the brief volatility in SOFR immediately after the decision.

The December meeting followed a similar pattern…

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What the last FOMC meeting of the year tells us about repo signals

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