During 2025, the US Dollar faced significant volatility, dropping 7.5% in the first half of the year after a 9% appreciation in 2024. This decline poses challenges for US businesses exposed to foreign currencies. This exposure value is captured by the publicly available Dollar Index. However, when combined with our broker-sourced US Treasury 10Yr order data, we can see past the surface and unearth exactly how much has changed since just a year ago.

When Treasury yields rise, the dollar typically strengthens as investors are attracted to higher returns relative to other countries. However, in April 2025, tariff announcements caused bond yields to rise sharply and that link unraveled. Although US bond yields remained elevated, relatively, the dollar weakened, as tariff concerns prompted investors to reassess US growth prospects and to sell dollars. The disconnect remains unresolved to this day.

The future economic outlook is unclear. The US dollar is still considered a safe investment, but its level is due to investors diversifying away from US assets amid various economic and fiscal factors. Treasury yields continue to fluctuate, indicating ongoing market tension.

If your team is modeling rate paths, managing inflation-linked risk, or calibrating trading signals to policy shifts, let’s talk. We’d be happy to share how broker-sourced OTC data can elevate your view of the market.

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