Our real-time and of End-of-Day (EOD) Refined product and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) data packages offer reliable and independent indicative market data, supporting our clients in their day-to-day trading and risk assessment.

The renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade war in 2025 is reshaping global energy markets, with crude oil and refined product flows highly impacted. The proposed U.S. tariffs have prompted retaliatory measures from Beijing, including duties on U.S. energy exports. These actions threaten to disrupt long-established trade routes, increasing pressure on supply costs. Brent crude is headed for a monthly drop of over 10%, the biggest since 2022, after hitting a four-year low, despite recovering some of its initial losses following the announcement of a 90-day delay in tariff enforcement to allow for negotiations with affected countries.

In China, the LPG segment will find it extremely challenging replacing U.S. supply. In particular, propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants, which convert propane into propylene, a key petrochemical used in plastics and other materials, will be under significant strain. Many PDH plants have been built in the last decade along China’s East Coast, fuelled by cheap U.S. propane, a by-product of the shale gas boom. China, the world’s largest LPG importer, has historically sourced a significant share from the U.S.

In 2024, U.S. LPG made up around half of China’s total imports due to its competitive pricing and abundant shale gas-derived production. However, China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. LPG risk altering this dynamic, forcing Chinese importers to seek alternative sources such as the Middle East. During President Trump’s first term, the trade war effectively halted China’s LPG imports from the U.S. in 2019. However, the impact was limited at the time, as the industry was smaller and operators were able to substitute U.S. imports with Middle Eastern cargoes to maintain supply.

“Today, replacing U.S. supply is considerably more difficult. China will need to pay steep premiums to attract limited Middle Eastern volumes, further straining industry margins. As expected, the spread between U.S. Mt. Belvieu and Saudi CP propane has widened when the tariffs were announced peaking at above 234$/MT and retracing to 190US/MT Friday last week, still nearly 20% higher than the trading average in the month of March as the chart below shows.” Francesca Marrone, E&C Product Manager.

Feedstock price volatility and uncertain availability are also disrupting long-term planning across China’s petrochemical sector. While the impact of U.S. tariffs has been felt across the oil spectrum, from crude to refined products, China’s LPG market stands out as particularly exposed. The trade war has not only strained economic relations but also put critical industrial sectors at risk.

In this uncertain landscape, access to timely, independent market data is more critical than ever. TraditionData’s real-time and EOD Refined products and LPG data package equips market participants with the actionable insights they need to navigate shifting trade flows, manage risk exposure, and support trading strategies.

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